EUR/USD

Key insight

The ECB rate decision this week is the single most important catalyst: a dovish hold or cut could break EUR/USD below 1.1400 and expose 1.1270, while a hawkish surprise could propel the pair back toward 1.1500+.

EUR/USD is consolidating at the critical 1.1400 round-number support, caught between a soft US CPI print that weakened the dollar and persistent Middle East-driven safe-haven flows that cap any euro rally above the 1.1430 resistance.

Main risk

US-Iran military escalation and Strait of Hormuz closure threat

Iran's IRGC has threatened to block oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz following the ninth night of US airstrikes on Iran; a full closure would trigger a surge in safe-haven dollar demand, breaking EUR/USD below 1.1400 and targeting 1.1270.