EUR/USD

Key insight

The July 23 ECB meeting is the single most important near-term catalyst: an ECB hold with a hawkish tilt (signalling a September hike) while US inflation data keeps the Fed sidelined would be the combination most likely to propel EUR/USD back toward 1.16–1.20.

EUR/USD is rangebound between the 1.1400 floor and 1.1480 resistance zone ahead of the pivotal July 23 ECB decision, with neither bulls nor bears in clear control above the 200-period MA at 1.1434.

Main risk

Middle East Escalation — US Strikes on Iranian Targets

Renewed US military strikes on Iranian targets are intensifying safe-haven demand for the USD and pushing oil prices higher toward $84+, complicating the Fed's inflation path and pressuring EUR/USD below the 1.1400 support floor.