EUR/USD

Key insight

The Fed's fractured 9-3 hold and a blow-out eurozone Q2 GDP of 0.4% (vs 0.2% forecast) are pulling EUR/USD in opposite directions — the pair's next decisive move will hinge on whether the ECB confirms a September rate hike or the Fed hawks regain the narrative.

EUR/USD is pulling back from the 1.1530 six-week high hit Wednesday post-Fed hold, now consolidating at 1.1488 as a divided Fed (9-3 vote) and a surprise eurozone GDP beat of 0.4% Q2 leave the medium-term direction in genuine two-way tension.

Main risk

ECB September Rate Hike Uncertainty

ECB Governing Council member Patsalides stated that the passage of time 'works against us on inflation' due to elevated oil prices, keeping a second 2026 hike live for September — a confirmation would be a sharp EUR/USD catalyst toward 1.1600+