Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

Oil has crashed from a $92+ geopolitical spike to $80.90 as Hormuz transit traffic recovers and ceasefire talks progress — the risk premium is unwinding fast, and with the Fed holding rates and the 30-year Treasury at its highest since 2007, macro headwinds compound the supply-shock reversal.

WTI is pulling back sharply to $80.90, reversing from the geopolitical spike high near $92–$93, as improving Strait of Hormuz transit activity and diplomatic progress between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Oman deflate the risk premium that drove last week's 11%+ surge.

Main risk

Strait of Hormuz Re-escalation

Any collapse of Iran-Saudi-Oman Hormuz negotiations or renewed IRGC missile strikes on US forces in Jordan could instantly re-price WTI above $90, invalidating the bearish unwind thesis.