Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The Iran–US escalation cycle is the dominant price driver: so long as IRGC attacks on Saudi infrastructure and Strait of Hormuz shipping risk remain live, the geopolitical risk premium in crude cannot be fully priced out — a single Hormuz closure event would be a $10–15/bbl shock.

WTI has rebounded sharply off the $79.26 swing low driven by IRGC ballistic missile strikes on US forces and drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, pushing price back above the key $82–83 resistance-turned-support zone.

Main risk

Strait of Hormuz Closure / Iran Escalation Ratchet

Iran-backed militias struck Saudi Eastern Region oil facilities for a second consecutive day on July 29–30; any confirmed disruption to the 17–18 mb/d flowing through Hormuz would spike WTI well above $90.