Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

WTI has rebounded sharply from its $79 low on Tuesday into a geopolitical risk-premium surge, but today's -1.8% pullback to $82.20 signals traders are fading the spike as Trump-Iran peace talks remain live and the Strait of Hormuz blockade outcome is still unresolved — a failed diplomatic resolution would quickly re-ignite the $90+ war-premium trade.

WTI is pulling back -1.8% to $82.20 on July 30 after Wednesday's 4-6%+ geopolitical spike — a classic "buy the rumour, fade the war premium" pattern — and is now sitting just below the $83 resistance zone that capped Wednesday's close, with the Fed decision and US Q2 GDP data today adding macro uncertainty.

Main risk

Strait of Hormuz Peace Deal / Escalation Binary

Iran rejected Oman's 50-50 control proposal for the Strait of Hormuz, keeping the blockade in place; any credible ceasefire deal would flush the geopolitical risk premium and send WTI back toward the $73-$75 pre-conflict range.