Crude Oil (WTI)
BullishArchived analysis from Jul 20, 2026, 1:21 PM
Key insight
The Strait of Hormuz — responsible for ~20% of global oil flows — has seen severely restricted commercial traffic following the US-Iran conflict escalation, creating a structural supply shock that justifies a significant geopolitical risk premium in WTI.
WTI is holding above the key $80 psychological support and the 50-day MA (~$79.50) after surging ~30% from July lows, driven by a genuine Strait of Hormuz supply shock with no clear diplomatic resolution in sight.
Main risk
US-Iran Diplomatic Re-engagement / Ceasefire
Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed receipt of proposals from international mediators on July 20; any credible ceasefire agreement or Strait of Hormuz reopening could unwind the entire geopolitical premium and send WTI back toward $70–$72.
Levels, scenarios & outlook are only available in the app — for all analyses, including archived ones.
Get the app→