Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The Strait of Hormuz conflict is the single most dominant price driver: Iran's rejection of shared control and Trump's threat of retaliation have re-priced war risk premium back into WTI after the market had almost entirely priced it out during last week's peace-trade selloff to $79.

WTI has snapped a three-day losing streak with a 4%+ surge back above the $83 geopolitical risk-premium threshold, anchored by Iran's rejection of the Oman-brokered Hormuz deal and a confirmed ballistic missile attack on US forces in the Middle East.

Main risk

Strait of Hormuz Diplomatic Breakthrough

Any credible Oman-brokered or US-Iran ceasefire deal would immediately flush out the geopolitical war premium, exposing WTI to a swift reversal back toward the $79 recent low and potentially the $76–$75 structural support zone.