Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The Strait of Hormuz blockade remains the dominant price driver: Iran's rejection of Oman's 50-50 control proposal and fresh drone strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure signal the geopolitical risk premium is being rebuilt, with the 52-week high of $119.47 (March 9, 2026) back in play if Hormuz flows deteriorate further.

WTI has surged back above the $83 round-number pivot after a US military interception of an Iranian attack reignited the Strait of Hormuz war risk premium, snapping a three-day losing streak from the $79 diplomatic-optimism low.

Main risk

Strait of Hormuz Diplomatic Breakthrough / Ceasefire Deal

Any credible US-Iran ceasefire agreement or resumed Hormuz shipping would collapse the war risk premium, sending WTI back toward the $79 diplomatic-optimism low tested on July 28, 2026.