Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

WTI has whipsawed violently — falling from a $92+ swing high on diplomatic optimism to $81, then rebounding +6% today — suggesting the Iran risk premium is NOT fully priced out and any ceasefire breakdown could retest the $92 swing high rapidly.

WTI has surged +6.11% to $83.45 today, rebounding sharply off Tuesday's ~$81 low as US-Iran diplomacy shows fragility, with Houthi drone strikes on Saudi pipelines and Saudi interceptions of Iraq-launched drones keeping geopolitical risk premium firmly embedded in the price.

Main risk

Fed Rate Decision & US-Iran Diplomacy Outcome (July 29)

If the Fed signals a hawkish hold today and US-Iran peace talks in Doha produce a formal ceasefire framework, WTI could retrace back below $80 and retest the $78.50 prior consolidation zone.