Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

WTI has completed a full round trip — rallying 30%+ from early-July lows to a $92 swing high before crashing back to $79, and today's +3.25% bounce is a pivotal retest: sustaining above $81.50 (50-day MA proxy) is required to avoid a renewed leg lower toward the $73–$75 structural support zone.

WTI is staging a sharp +3.25% intraday reversal to $81.19 after Tuesday's collapse to $79.28, caught between a geopolitical risk-premium unwind on US-Iran diplomacy and a potential EIA inventory draw or Fed-driven dollar softness providing relief support at the $79 swing low.

Main risk

US-Iran Diplomatic Breakthrough / Hormuz Reopening

President Trump confirmed 'good talks' with Tehran on July 28, raising the prospect of Iranian barrels returning to market and removing the Strait of Hormuz risk premium that drove WTI from $55 to $117.63 this cycle.