Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The war-risk premium that drove WTI above $82 has been rapidly repriced out as US-Iran peace talks advance and Strait of Hormuz disruption fears recede — the bull case now depends entirely on talks collapsing.

WTI has broken below the key $80.00 round-number support and the 50-day MA (~$81.50) after a sharp geopolitical risk-premium unwind driven by US-Iran diplomatic progress, with the intraday low of $78.29 confirming selling pressure at current levels.

Main risk

US-Iran Diplomatic Breakdown / Hormuz Escalation Resumption

If US-Iran ceasefire talks fail and Iran resumes Hormuz disruption threats, WTI could swiftly reclaim the $82–$84 range as the geopolitical premium is re-injected.