Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding — requiring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz — has permanently repriced the geopolitical risk premium out of WTI; this is not a dip to buy but a structural supply normalization with Iranian barrels returning to market.

WTI has broken below the key $83 structural support and the 100-day SMA, now trading at $80.69, as the US-Iran MoU and Strait of Hormuz reopening structurally remove the geopolitical risk premium that had scaffolded prices near multi-month highs above $90.

Main risk

US-Iran Diplomacy Breakdown / Re-escalation

If the MoU collapses or Iran violates Hormuz passage commitments, the geopolitical risk premium could snap back violently toward the $90–$93 resistance zone, squeezing the large short base that has built since the peace deal.