Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The structural supply-disruption premium built on Middle East conflict has been rapidly dismantled by the US-Iran MoU; with Iranian barrels returning to market and Hormuz passage normalising, the fundamental bear case now dominates and the IG feed shows WTI at $80.95 — extending Monday's 7.5% crash further into Tuesday.

WTI has crashed from a recent high near $98 to $80.95 on the IG feed — a ~18% collapse — driven by the unwinding of the Middle East geopolitical risk premium following the US-Iran MoU ceasefire framework and resumption of Hormuz traffic, with price now below the key $83 intraday support seen Monday.

Main risk

US-Iran ceasefire MoU breakdown / renewed Hormuz blockade

If the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding collapses and the US reinstates strikes or Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz, the geopolitical risk premium could snap back violently toward $92–$98, invalidating the entire bear thesis.