Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

$85 holding as near-term floor, but 200-day MA at $87 caps rallies. Break below $83.50 (Oct swing low) opens $80 — the 2026 demand-trough support. No catalyst visible for a sustained move higher.

Stalls at $85.14 — below the 200-day MA near $87.00, with USD/JPY at 158.5 signalling persistent dollar strength capping commodity upside.

Main risk

OPEC+ Compliance & Supply Overhang

Quota cheating by Iraq and Kazakhstan keeps physical supply elevated; a compliance breakdown pushes WTI below $83.50 Oct swing low toward $80.