Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The US-Iran ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz diplomacy are rapidly dismantling the ~40% July supply-shock premium; unless talks collapse, the structural trend is mean-reversion back toward pre-conflict levels near $70–$75.

WTI is reversing sharply from last week's geopolitical spike as US-Iran diplomatic progress unwinds the war-risk premium, with price pulling back from the $119.47 52-week high toward the $80 psychological support zone.

Main risk

US-Iran Ceasefire Breakdown / Hormuz Re-Escalation

Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities at Jizan and Yanbu over the weekend confirm residual supply risk; any resumption of US strikes on Iran could instantly reprice WTI back above $95–$100.