Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

WTI has plunged from a Thursday spike high of ~$92.19 to $83.10 in just two sessions as a US-Iran ceasefire weekend and Pakistan-China-brokered diplomacy signal that the war premium embedded during July's 30%+ rally is now being rapidly priced out — the speed and magnitude of the reversal is the most important signal.

WTI has crashed -6.26% to $83.10 today as US-Iran diplomatic ceasefire signals rapidly unwind the geopolitical risk premium that drove the 30%+ monthly surge, with price now testing the key $83 psychological support and threatening a break below the prior range.

Main risk

US-Iran Diplomacy Breakdown / Re-escalation Risk

If US-Iran peace talks collapse — as they have repeatedly — and strikes resume on Gulf energy infrastructure or the Strait of Hormuz, WTI could re-spike violently back above $90 and toward RBC Capital's $100+ target, invalidating the entire bear thesis.