Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

$100 round number acting as contested pivot — bulls need a close above $103.50 swing high to re-accelerate; bears need a break of $98.50 200-day MA to open $95 target.

100.79 holds the $100 psychological floor but a -0.78% slide signals fading momentum; price is trapped between $98.50 200-day MA support and $103.50 recent swing high resistance.

Main risk

OPEC+ supply-cut compliance risk

Defection or partial rollback of OPEC+ cuts would flood ~0.5–1 mb/d of supply into a market already showing demand softness.