Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

$101.37 is the line in the sand: reclaim it and the uptrend resumes to $106.75; lose $95.25 and the bearish reversal top triggers a flush to the $93.69–$91.87 Fib zone. Price at $98.26 sits in no-man's land between both levels.

$101.37 June high rejected Tuesday; WTI holding ~$98 as Strait of Hormuz risk premium fights Trump's Russia sanction waiver — two opposing forces create near-term equilibrium.

Main risk

Trump Russia Sanction Waiver

Waiver strips sanctions on Russian crude and removes penalties for buyers like India — structurally adds supply and pressures the $95.25 reversal-top confirmation level.