Crude Oil (WTI)
BullishArchived analysis from Oct 21, 2026, 3:36 AM
Key insight
$100.50 monthly high tested Tuesday; $102.11 five-month high is the next key hurdle. Trump's Russian-sanctions waiver caps upside but Hormuz risk floor stays intact near $95.
Holds $98+ after 10%-plus October rally — Strait of Hormuz vessel attacks and Iran's threat to extend blockade to Bab al-Mandeb keep geopolitical premium embedded.
Main risk
Trump Russian Sanctions Waiver
Waiver removes Graham Act penalties on Russian crude buyers; lifts supply outlook and triggered 3%-plus intraday drop earlier this week.
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