Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

WTI has shed ~$8.60 from its Thursday peak in under 48 hours — the geopolitical war premium is being rapidly priced out as Pakistan/China-brokered US-Iran diplomacy gains traction, but underlying conflict risk remains live and any breakdown in talks could reignite a $95–$100 spike.

WTI has crashed from Thursday's $92.19 spike high to $83.62, erasing the geopolitical premium as US-Iran diplomatic signals and a 2.0M-barrel domestic inventory build trigger a sharp reversal.

Main risk

US-Iran Ceasefire/Diplomacy Collapse

If Pakistan/China-brokered negotiations fail and the US resumes strikes on Iranian infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz disruption premium could violently re-price WTI back above $92 within a single session.