Crude Oil (WTI)
BullishArchived analysis from Oct 20, 2026, 3:34 AM
Key insight
$100 reclaimed then lost — Sept 14 high at $104.95 is the next bull trigger; $90.50 (50-day EMA) remains distant floor. Russia supply waiver caps upside; Hormuz choke keeps downside shallow.
Holds $98 after Russia sanctions waiver erased $100 breakout; Strait of Hormuz disruptions and 8.6M-bbl inventory draw underpin structural bid.
Main risk
Trump Russia Sanctions Waiver
Waiver on Graham Act lifts Russian export curbs; restores supply premium lost after Hormuz shock, targeting $93–$94 zone on full reversal.
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