Crude Oil (WTI)
NeutralArchived analysis from Oct 19, 2026, 8:26 PM
Key insight
Two forces collide at $98.45: Russia sanctions waiver opens supply, Hormuz tanker attacks tighten it. Sept 14 swing high at $104.95 is the bull trigger; $96.91 intraday low is the bear line.
98.45 holds after Trump waives Russia sanctions, deflating the geopolitical bid; Strait of Hormuz disruptions and US inventory draw (-8.6mb) cap the downside.
Main risk
Strait of Hormuz Closure Risk
Iran vows only friendly-nation passage; full Hormuz blockade removes ~20% of seaborne supply, spiking WTI toward $110–$117.
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