Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The US-Iran ceasefire has collapsed and the Strait of Hormuz remains critically disrupted — oil's geopolitical risk premium is the highest this cycle, and a diplomatic breakthrough is the only credible near-term bearish catalyst.

WTI has broken above the key $83.00 resistance zone on the back of ceasefire collapse and near-halted Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic, with momentum-driven buying pushing prices toward the $85.50 prior pivot high.

Main risk

US-Iran Diplomatic Breakthrough / Ceasefire Resumption

Any confirmed restart of US-Iran talks in Doha producing a framework deal could cause a rapid $5–8 unwind of the geopolitical premium built into WTI above $80.