Crude Oil (WTI)

Bullish

Archived analysis from Oct 16, 2026, 1:24 PM

Key insight

Pulls back from Thursday's $97.97 settlement after Trump ruled out nuclear strike, trimming geopolitical premium; $97.50 short-term resistance intact. Bull thesis holds while price stays above 20-day EMA at $92.29.

+5.5% weekly gain driven by Strait of Hormuz supply shock — EIA draw of 8.6M barrels (largest since Feb) confirms tightening fundamentals; $96 now acting as near-term pivot.

Main risk

Strait of Hormuz risk premium erosion

ING warns premium evaporates if US military sustains Hormuz flows; IEA releasing 100M barrels of strategic reserves adds ceiling pressure near $97–99.

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