Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

$96 cap holds — break above needed to confirm bull continuation toward $102.50. Shadow-fleet sanctions relief proposal and OPEC+ 900k bpd output surge both cap upside; Hormuz attacks and a 3.2M-bbl US inventory draw underpin dips.

Pullback to $92.92 after rejection at $96 resistance; $91.73 (9-day EMA) is the line in the sand. OPEC+ surge offsets Hormuz supply risk — bulls and bears evenly matched.

Main risk

US Tanker Sanctions Relief Proposal

Easing shadow-fleet sanctions could move more Gulf crude, cutting the Hormuz risk premium and pushing WTI back toward $89.31 (50-day EMA).