Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

Oil is caught between a powerful geopolitical risk premium — with 13 consecutive nights of US strikes on Iran — and a sudden 5% intraday sell-off on Pakistan/China-brokered US-Iran diplomatic overtures; direction now hinges entirely on whether negotiations gain traction before the July 29 Fed decision.

WTI has cleared the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $85.99 and the descending trendline from May–July highs, posting a ~20% monthly surge driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and escalating US-Iran hostilities.

Main risk

US-Iran Diplomatic Breakthrough via Pakistan/China Mediation

Reports of China-backed Pakistan brokering US-Iran talks caused a sharp ~5% intraday drop to ~$88, threatening the entire geopolitical war premium built since mid-June.