Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

$90 capped WTI for two straight sessions; 38.2% Fib of the Jul–Sep rally at ~$88.76 tested — a daily close below flips momentum firmly bearish toward $86.65 lower Bollinger Band.

Stalling at 4-week low ~$89; G7 released 100mb emergency reserves, Gulf exports back to 81% of pre-war levels — supply bears have the upper hand below $90.

Main risk

Strait of Hormuz Escalation

US-Iran standoff unresolved; fresh tanker strikes or mine incidents could spike WTI $5–8 in hours, reversing the bearish supply narrative instantly.