Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

WTI has surged over 30% this month driven by genuine supply-disruption risk — Brent crossed $100/bbl for the first time since May 2026 — making today's pullback a technical giveback rather than a structural reversal, so long as the Strait of Hormuz remains threatened.

Despite today's -2.54% pullback from Thursday's $92.19 settlement, WTI remains structurally bid above the key $88.00 round-number support as the US-Iran military conflict and Houthi tanker attacks sustain a substantial geopolitical risk premium in the market.

Main risk

US-Iran De-escalation or Ceasefire

Any surprise diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran, or a halt to Houthi Red Sea attacks, could rapidly deflate the geopolitical risk premium that has driven WTI from ~$68 to $92+ in July alone.