Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

Oil has surged over 30% from early-July lows in just weeks — the Middle East risk premium is the dominant driver, and any ceasefire headline or demand-shock surprise could trigger a violent reversal back below $80.

WTI is trading above the key $90 round-number support after a 5-session rally fuelled by Houthi tanker attacks enforcing a Red Sea blockade and the collapse of the US-Iran nuclear deal, keeping a structural supply-risk premium firmly in price.

Main risk

Sudden Middle East ceasefire or Iran deal revival

A rapid de-escalation removing Strait of Hormuz/Red Sea risk premium could drain 10-15 USD/bbl from current prices, targeting the $78–$80 demand-zone support.