Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

93.06 tests the 2025 swing high cluster near $94–95; a clean break opens $98.50 (Fib 61.8% of the 2022–2023 decline). Failure to hold $90 flips the structure bearish. Supply cuts and a weak dollar are the twin engines of this rally.

93.06 holds above the 200-day MA near 88.50 and the key $90 round number, with a +0.77% session gain confirming demand. Supply discipline from OPEC+ and a softer USD (EUR/USD 1.1471) sustain upward pressure.

Main risk

Global demand slowdown — China

Weakening Chinese manufacturing PMI signals softer crude demand; a break below $90 would confirm demand-driven selling pressure.