Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The Strait of Hormuz chokepoint threat is the single biggest risk premium driver right now: any escalation that closes or constrains Hormuz transit would remove ~20% of global seaborne oil supply instantly.

WTI has broken decisively above the June 10 high (~$88.50) and the key $90 round-number resistance, driven by Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers and Trump's threat of a "massive attack" on Iran — supply disruption risk is acutely elevated.

Main risk

Iran Strait of Hormuz Closure / Direct US-Iran Military Escalation

A confirmed Iranian move to block or mine the Strait of Hormuz would send WTI toward the 2022 high of $130+ and invalidate all downside stops — the RBC analyst warns Brent could surpass the 2008 peak of $147.