Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

$97 holds key Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the Sep spike; geopolitical floor remains intact — Saudi East-West pipeline outage unresolved, Rapidan flags escalation risk if disruption extends past Sep.

Pullback to $97 after +18% monthly surge; Saudi pipeline bypass eases supply shock but geopolitical floor holds — Hormuz escalation risk and API 7.1M-barrel build create two-way tension near $100.

Main risk

API 7.1M-barrel inventory surprise

Surprise 7.1M-barrel crude build vs. expected draw — largest bearish data point in weeks, pressures $95 support if EIA confirms.