Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

$96.14 rejected at $97 round resistance; gold +2.3% and silver +3.8% surge signals flight-to-safety bid, leaving oil isolated as the weakest commodity. Hold below $97.50 targets $93.50 prior swing low.

Falls 2.1% to $96.14 while equities rally 1.3% — negative divergence signals supply-side selling, not demand fear; break below $97 round number confirms near-term downside bias.

Main risk

OPEC+ surprise output decision

Unscheduled OPEC+ cut announcement could spike WTI $4-6 instantly, invalidating short thesis above $99.50 50-day MA.