Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

$100 round number acts as the pivotal gate: close above it on strong volume confirms breakout; rejection sends price back to 50-day MA near $95.80. Risk/reward favours longs while $97.20 holds.

99.44 tags the $100 psychological barrier — +2.25% surge confirms supply-side conviction; break and hold above $100 opens 2025 swing high at $103.50.

Main risk

Demand Destruction / Global Recession Fear

S&P 500 -0.4% and Nasdaq -1.3% today signal risk-off; sustained equity weakness historically cuts oil demand forecasts and caps any rally above $100.