Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The US-Iran war has physically disrupted Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic for 11+ consecutive days, making this a genuine supply shock rather than a fear premium — prices could spike further if Iran follows through on threats against Saudi energy infrastructure.

WTI has surged to its highest level since June 8 at $90.84, driven by an active US-Iran military conflict that is throttling tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz — the world's most critical oil chokepoint — with no ceasefire in sight.

Main risk

Unexpected US-Iran ceasefire or peace talks resumption

Any credible de-escalation signal — such as a Qatar-mediated ceasefire announcement — could cause a rapid $10-$15/barrel sell-off as the geopolitical risk premium is unwound from current levels near $90.84.