Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

90.39 trades in a constructive range: 200-day MA at 88.50 is unbroken support; a close above 92.00 opens the Aug 2025 swing high at 94.80. Supply-side control from OPEC+ remains the dominant structural bid.

90.39 holds above the 200-day MA near 88.50 — OPEC+ supply discipline and USD softness (EUR/USD 1.1611) underpin the bid; next resistance at 92.00 round number.

Main risk

China demand growth slowdown

Slowing Chinese industrial output would cut the world's top crude importer's demand — a break of 88.50 (200-day MA) would confirm the thesis shift.