Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The US-Iran conflict has entered its 11th consecutive day of exchanges, with Houthi militants simultaneously threatening a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia — a dual chokepoint threat to the Strait of Hormuz AND Red Sea that Energy Aspects warns could push WTI above $100/bbl.

WTI has surged ~20% in July alone to a fresh six-week high of $87.85, driven by active US-Iran military exchange and Strait of Hormuz supply disruption fears — price is now trading above the key $87 resistance-turned-support level.

Main risk

US-Iran Ceasefire or Truce Agreement

Mediators are actively seeking to revive a truce; any confirmed ceasefire would rapidly unwind the ~20% geopolitical risk premium baked in since early July, exposing a sharp reversal toward the $72–75 pre-escalation range.