Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

$85.00 round-number resistance tested intraday; break and close above opens $87–$89 Brent-equivalence zone. Hormuz rhetoric re-escalating after Aug diplomatic window closed with no deal.

Surges +2.4% to $84.93 as Hormuz deal collapses — ~8 mb/d of transit disrupted, distillate stocks falling for 3rd straight week.

Main risk

Hormuz Flow Normalization

Partial Hormuz reopening via Iran-Oman corridor would remove the supply shock narrative and snap WTI back toward $78–$80 support.