Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

83.00 round-number resistance stalls price; Hormuz flows at ~67% of pre-war levels per Goldman Sachs — full reopening needed to break the supply premium keeping WTI above $80.

83.00 holds as WTI books a second weekly loss — Hormuz partial reopening caps upside while Iran deal collapse and USD weakness offset each other in a tight $81–85 range.

Main risk

Strait of Hormuz full reopening

CBA warns partial Hormuz recovery of 50–60% pre-war volume enough to push Brent toward $70 floor — WTI would follow to $65–68.