Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

$82.78 sits between 50-day MA at $83.50 (resistance) and 100-day MA at $81.20 (support) — break of either resolves the range. Firm dollar and weak risk appetite tilt probability toward the downside.

Fades -0.53% to $82.78 with equities flat — soft demand signal as USD/JPY holds 159.4 and DXY stays firm, capping commodity upside despite OPEC+ supply discipline.

Main risk

OPEC+ surprise output cut reversal

Unexpected OPEC+ production cut rollback or quota breach could spike WTI above $85.00, invalidating the bearish range breakdown thesis.