Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

$83.50 (200-day MA) caps every rally attempt — until reclaimed, bears retain structural control and the $78 demand zone is the next meaningful test on a momentum breakdown.

Holding below the 200-day MA near $83.50 with a -0.45% drift, WTI at $81.58 stays rangebound but structurally weak as OPEC+ supply returns and global demand forecasts soften.

Main risk

OPEC+ surprise output reversal

Unexpected OPEC+ cut announcement would spike WTI sharply through $83.50 resistance, invalidating the bearish range thesis instantly.