Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

$81.62 now exposed to $80 round-number test — a close below triggers a move toward the 200-day MA near $79.40. Equities rallying but oil decoupling signals demand-side concern, not supply disruption.

Drop of -3.68% breaks $83 support, leaving WTI at $81.62 — weakest print in recent weeks. Equity strength provides no floor; macro demand fears dominate as USD holds firm at USD/JPY 159.2.

Main risk

OPEC+ supply discipline breakdown

Any OPEC+ quota violation or surprise output increase accelerates the drop toward $78 — the 2026 swing low zone.