Crude Oil (WTI)
BullishArchived analysis from Jul 22, 2026, 1:22 PM
Key insight
The Strait of Hormuz supply disruption is the single most powerful price driver right now — with the US and Iran exchanging strikes for a 10th consecutive day and tanker traffic sharply curtailed, Energy Aspects warns $100/bbl is on the table if shipping normalisation fails.
WTI has surged ~20% in July, breaking above the key $85.00 June swing high on sustained US-Iran military escalation choking tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats blockading Red Sea shipping.
Main risk
US-Iran Ceasefire or Truce Agreement
A surprise diplomatic breakthrough — similar to the June 17 interim agreement that briefly reopened the Strait — could trigger a rapid $8–$12 reversal from current $86.90 levels as the geopolitical risk premium collapses.
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