Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

$86.50 resistance being probed now — Trump's Iran sanctions kill near-term Hormuz resolution, keeping ~20M bbl/day of seaborne supply at risk. Break and hold above $86.50 opens $89–$90 zone.

Hormuz closure intact as Trump escalates Iran sanctions; WTI hit $86.7 Thu — highest since Jul 24. USD index at 3-month low adds tailwind. Resistance zone $84.70–$86.50 now being tested.

Main risk

EIA inventory build +4.4M bbl

Surprise +4.4M bbl draw undercuts supply-squeeze narrative; distillate stocks at 1-month low offset but crude build is a headwind above $86.