Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

$86.41 sits mid-range between $84 MA support and $89 resistance; a break of either resolves direction. USD/JPY at 159.1 adds dollar headwind; OPEC+ compliance data is the near-term catalyst.

Trades at $86.41, caught between 200-day MA support near $84.00 and the $88–89 resistance band — neither bulls nor bears have conviction at current levels.

Main risk

OPEC+ supply surprise

Raise output above agreed schedule — breach of $84 200-day MA opens path to $80 round-number support.