Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

$84.25 sits in a compression zone between $82.00 support and $85.50 (50-day MA). Break either side with volume defines next 3–5 point leg. OPEC+ supply discipline and USD/JPY at 159.7 are the swing factors.

Holds $84.25 — wedged between 50-day MA resistance near $85.50 and $82.00 horizontal support; no breakout catalyst confirmed yet as gold drops 1.7% signalling broader commodity caution.

Main risk

China Demand Disappointment

Sustained weakness in Chinese crude imports breaks $82.00, opening a move toward $78.50 — the 200-day MA.