Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

82.00 (200-day MA) is the pivotal level: reclaiming it on a weekly close opens 84.50; rejection sends price back toward the 79.60 50-day MA support.

81.82 holds mid-range — price is caught between OPEC+ supply discipline and slowing global demand growth, leaving WTI rangebound near the 200-day MA at ~82.00.

Main risk

OPEC+ surprise output increase

Unwind of voluntary cuts by key Gulf producers would add 500-1,000 kb/d of supply, pressuring WTI toward 77.00 within weeks.