Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The dominant driver is not fundamentals but war risk: the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and any escalation resumption after the proposed 10-day ceasefire collapse would send WTI surging back toward the $90+ zone.

WTI has rallied sharply to a 5-week high above $84 driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a 10-day US-Iran military confrontation, keeping a geopolitical risk premium firmly embedded in the price.

Main risk

US-Iran Ceasefire Materialising

Reuters-reported mediator proposals for a 10-day US-Iran truce triggered an intraday reversal from $84.68; a confirmed ceasefire and Hormuz reopening could erase $5–8 of geopolitical premium, driving WTI toward the Fibonacci 50% level at $81.29.