Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is the most acute physical supply disruption this cycle — with US strikes completing six consecutive nights, Iranian retaliation ongoing, and Houthi forces on standby to close the Bab el-Mandeb, oil carries a structural geopolitical premium that is unlikely to fully unwind until a credible ceasefire is confirmed.

WTI holds above the key $80 psychological level and 50-day MA (~$79.20) after surging 14%+ on the week, driven by the US-Iran military escalation and near-shutdown of Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic.

Main risk

US-Iran Diplomatic Breakthrough

President Trump confirmed peace talks with Iran are continuing and the US remains committed to a diplomatic solution — any credible ceasefire deal could instantly erase $8–$12 of the current geopolitical risk premium, sending WTI back toward the $70–$72 zone.